Betting Lines
| Spread | UAB -15.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UAB +15 | 145 | Lost |
| Massey | UAB -11.2 (-3.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.7 (-3.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 6% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 4% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UAB -10.2 (-4.8) | 146.5 (-1.5) | 20% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UAB -12.6 (-2.4) | 145.2 (-0.2) | 16% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UAB -9.2 (-5.8) | 145.6 (-0.6) | 20% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UAB -9.5 (-5.5) | 147.5 (-2.5) | 18% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 23, 2026 | USF 82 – 69 UAB |
| Jan 4, 2026 | UAB 109 – 106 USF |
| Feb 16, 2025 | UAB 85 – 78 USF |
| Jan 16, 2025 | UAB 92 – 83 USF |
| Mar 16, 2024 | UAB 93 – 83 USF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USF | UAB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-18 | 29-10 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 14-6 |
| Home | 9-9 | 17-2 |
| Away | 4-7 | 7-5 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 5-3 |
| Last 5 | 0-4 | 2-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.0 | 80.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.0 | 70.7 |
| Massey | -5.1 (#268) | 6.1 (#79) |
| Bradley-Terry | -3.17 (#352) | -0.37 (#209) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.79 (#339) | -0.62 (#215) |
| RPI | 0.351 (#317) | 0.446 (#239) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USF | UAB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.8% | 50.8% |
| 3PT% | 25.0% | 34.5% |
| REB / G | 37.5 | 43.7 |
| OREB / G | 12.8 | 12.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.83 | 1.27 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.5% | 55.9% |
| TOV% | 18.4% | 18.3% |
| ORB% | 33.3% | 35.2% |
| FT Rate | 15.5% | 35.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.3% | 43.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.5% | 21.7% |
| DRB% | 69.7% | 68.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.0% | 23.9% |
Game Analysis
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