Betting Lines
| Spread | BC -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Under |
| Money | BC -163 TAR +170 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TAR +16 | 124 | Lost |
| Massey | TAR -6.4 (-9.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.9 (-12.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 33% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 19% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TAR -2.7 (-13.3) | 142.0 (-18.0) | 41% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TAR -3.0 (-13.0) | 141.4 (-17.4) | 39% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TAR -3.2 (-12.8) | 139.9 (-15.9) | 37% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TAR -2.7 (-13.3) | 139.4 (-15.4) | 40% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BC | TAR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-17 | 17-17 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 9-9 |
| Home | 9-7 | 13-2 |
| Away | 4-7 | 2-12 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-1 | 1-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.6 | 67.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.2 | 70.1 |
| Massey | -0.0 (#177) | 6.3 (#76) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.24 (#157) | 0.95 (#106) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.15 (#171) | 1.60 (#94) |
| RPI | 0.613 (#63) | 0.579 (#98) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BC | TAR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.4% | 42.9% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 25.9% |
| REB / G | 38.0 | 35.5 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.94 | 0.69 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.8% | 46.2% |
| TOV% | 17.8% | 20.9% |
| ORB% | 29.4% | 29.3% |
| FT Rate | 16.9% | 48.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.4% | 48.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.6% | 26.6% |
| DRB% | 73.8% | 63.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 14.2% | 23.5% |
Game Analysis
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