Betting Lines
| Spread | VT -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Under |
| Money | COFC +188 VT -250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | COFC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | COFC +2 | 152 | Won |
| Massey | VT -0.2 (+2.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 165.9 (-13.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 75% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | COFC -0.4 (+1.6) | 154.0 (-2.0) | 53% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VT -0.2 (+2.2) | 152.8 (-0.8) | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | COFC -1.7 (+0.3) | 155.7 (-3.7) | 52% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | COFC -1.1 (+0.9) | 155.2 (-3.2) | 56% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | COFC | VT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 31-4 | 19-15 |
| Conference | 16-2 | 8-12 |
| Home | 17-1 | 13-4 |
| Away | 11-2 | 2-10 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 4-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.6 | 74.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.2 | 70.1 |
| Massey | 1.1 (#149) | 9.2 (#35) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.87 (#44) | 2.46 (#22) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.83 (#47) | 3.11 (#35) |
| RPI | 0.706 (#23) | 0.639 (#52) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | COFC | VT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.7% | 50.9% |
| 3PT% | 30.9% | 40.0% |
| REB / G | 38.8 | 34.4 |
| OREB / G | 14.8 | 7.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.85 | 2.14 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.6% | 59.1% |
| TOV% | 17.8% | 11.3% |
| ORB% | 37.2% | 26.0% |
| FT Rate | 22.8% | 20.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.3% | 47.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.3% | 16.9% |
| DRB% | 71.0% | 71.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.4% | 7.4% |
Game Analysis
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