Betting Lines
| Spread | HC -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Over |
| Money | HC -120 STO +120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | STO +2 | 160 | Lost |
| Massey | STO -2.3 (+0.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 158.8 (+1.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 1% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 0% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | STO -3.0 (+1.0) | 154.4 (+5.6) | 37% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | STO -3.6 (+1.6) | 151.6 (+8.4) | 32% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | STO -1.2 (-0.8) | 153.8 (+6.2) | 44% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | STO -3.5 (+1.5) | 154.1 (+5.9) | 41% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HC | STO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-22 | 14-17 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 10-6 |
| Home | 6-9 | 7-4 |
| Away | 4-11 | 6-12 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-2 | 1-3 |
| Streak | L4 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.2 | 66.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.1 | 70.4 |
| Massey | -8.2 (#318) | -5.9 (#283) |
| Bradley-Terry | -3.90 (#362) | 0.49 (#136) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -6.61 (#363) | 0.59 (#147) |
| RPI | 0.435 (#246) | 0.563 (#119) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HC | STO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.8% | 49.1% |
| 3PT% | 37.0% | 38.0% |
| REB / G | 30.5 | 25.5 |
| OREB / G | 7.0 | 5.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.58 | 0.85 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.9% | 56.9% |
| TOV% | 17.5% | 20.6% |
| ORB% | 17.7% | 17.6% |
| FT Rate | 14.0% | 22.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 63.1% | 55.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.5% | 16.4% |
| DRB% | 75.8% | 60.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.9% | 32.0% |
Game Analysis
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