Betting Lines
| Spread | PITT -20.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Under |
| Money | PITT -2500 ALST +1400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PITT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PITT +19 | 127 | Won |
| Massey | PITT -15.6 (+3.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.5 (-23.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PITT -10.4 (+8.6) | 147.4 (-20.4) | 84% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PITT -11.6 (+7.4) | 147.0 (-20.0) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PITT -10.5 (+8.5) | 146.7 (-19.7) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PITT -11.5 (+7.5) | 146.3 (-19.3) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PITT | ALST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-12 | 8-23 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 6-12 |
| Home | 14-3 | 5-5 |
| Away | 7-5 | 2-18 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 1-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-3 | 0-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L6 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.1 | 62.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.7 | 72.5 |
| Massey | -8.1 (#314) | -15.9 (#359) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.80 (#322) | -1.72 (#312) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.52 (#308) | -3.04 (#326) |
| RPI | 0.425 (#258) | 0.365 (#306) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PITT | ALST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.4% | 33.1% |
| 3PT% | 25.5% | 32.0% |
| REB / G | 36.2 | 34.5 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 13.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.72 | 0.77 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.4% | 37.5% |
| TOV% | 23.0% | 17.4% |
| ORB% | 29.5% | 29.5% |
| FT Rate | 25.1% | 15.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.5% | 60.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.0% | 16.7% |
| DRB% | 74.3% | 64.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.9% | 29.6% |
Game Analysis
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