Betting Lines
| Spread | CONN -33.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Over |
| Money | CONN -10000 DSU +3300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CONN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CONN +35 | 155 | Won |
| Massey | CONN -27.8 (+7.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 129.5 (+25.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CONN -21.9 (+13.1) | 136.7 (+18.3) | 91% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CONN -24.6 (+10.4) | 137.9 (+17.1) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CONN -26.1 (+8.9) | 136.5 (+18.5) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CONN -26.3 (+8.7) | 135.7 (+19.3) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CONN | DSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 31-8 | 6-24 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 4-10 |
| Home | 15-2 | 4-8 |
| Away | 6-5 | 2-14 |
| Neutral | 10-1 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-0 | 0-3 |
| Streak | W6 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.6 | 63.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 64.1 | 75.8 |
| Massey | 12.9 (#17) | -7.1 (#300) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.38 (#77) | -1.78 (#320) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.97 (#82) | -2.87 (#320) |
| RPI | 0.620 (#67) | 0.335 (#318) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CONN | DSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.8% | 44.8% |
| 3PT% | 34.4% | 34.0% |
| REB / G | 40.8 | 28.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 6.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.30 | 0.70 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.4% | 49.7% |
| TOV% | 18.6% | 23.6% |
| ORB% | 36.6% | 20.9% |
| FT Rate | 33.5% | 6.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 39.6% | 53.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.8% | 16.1% |
| DRB% | 78.8% | 71.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.5% | 37.2% |
Game Analysis
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