Colorado State
Rams
56
–
68
FINAL
Neutral
Shriners Children's Charleston Classic
Penn State
Nittany Lions
Betting Lines
| Spread | PSU -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Under |
| Money | CSU +180 PSU -175 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PSU +12 | 124 | Lost |
| Massey | PSU -3.4 (-8.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 129.4 (-5.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 69% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 75% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PSU -1.4 (-10.6) | 135.4 (-11.4) | 43% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PSU -1.6 (-10.4) | 133.2 (-9.2) | 40% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PSU -1.4 (-10.6) | 137.6 (-13.6) | 45% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PSU -1.6 (-10.4) | 137.2 (-13.2) | 46% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CSU | PSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-18 | 23-14 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 10-10 |
| Home | 9-7 | 13-3 |
| Away | 4-8 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 6-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.1 | 72.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.3 | 68.2 |
| Massey | 4.7 (#91) | 8.1 (#51) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.69 (#55) | 0.90 (#108) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.39 (#63) | 1.30 (#108) |
| RPI | 0.587 (#94) | 0.644 (#50) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CSU | PSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 52.2% | 49.1% |
| 3PT% | 39.1% | 44.3% |
| REB / G | 34.8 | 34.0 |
| OREB / G | 5.0 | 6.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.47 | 1.81 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 59.0% | 60.5% |
| TOV% | 16.9% | 15.6% |
| ORB% | 16.7% | 19.5% |
| FT Rate | 20.5% | 10.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.5% | 48.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.0% | 15.3% |
| DRB% | 77.2% | 79.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.7% | 13.6% |
Game Analysis
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