Betting Lines
| Spread | FDU -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Over |
| Money | FDU -200 VMI +210 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FDU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FDU +4 | 182 | Won |
| Massey | FDU -4.1 (-0.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.1 (+34.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 54% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FDU -2.4 (+1.6) | 146.4 (+35.6) | 68% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FDU -0.4 (+3.6) | 145.0 (+37.0) | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FDU -2.6 (+1.4) | 145.4 (+36.6) | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FDU -2.3 (+1.7) | 146.6 (+35.4) | 62% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FDU | VMI |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-16 | 7-25 |
| Conference | 10-6 | 2-16 |
| Home | 10-5 | 6-8 |
| Away | 8-9 | 1-14 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-3 | 0-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.9 | 65.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.1 | 78.4 |
| Massey | -4.1 (#258) | -8.2 (#317) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.63 (#307) | -1.78 (#319) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.35 (#297) | -2.99 (#325) |
| RPI | 0.234 (#354) | 0.340 (#316) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FDU | VMI |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.5% | 35.7% |
| 3PT% | 33.0% | 30.3% |
| REB / G | 34.5 | 34.3 |
| OREB / G | 13.0 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.02 | 0.65 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.8% | 42.4% |
| TOV% | 17.5% | 21.0% |
| ORB% | 33.1% | 27.3% |
| FT Rate | 19.2% | 18.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 57.0% | 56.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.1% | 13.9% |
| DRB% | 65.6% | 73.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.5% | 20.7% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.