Betting Lines
| Spread | UNC -12.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 166.5 Under |
| Money | UNC -1000 JMU +550 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNC +16 | 144 | Won |
| Massey | JMU -15.7 (+31.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 158.2 (-14.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 75% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | JMU -2.0 (+18.0) | 156.5 (-12.5) | 45% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNC -1.2 (+14.8) | 154.0 (-10.0) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | JMU -4.1 (+20.1) | 154.9 (-10.9) | 34% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | JMU -6.7 (+22.7) | 155.0 (-11.0) | 35% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNC | JMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-13 | 22-11 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 12-6 |
| Home | 12-3 | 11-3 |
| Away | 4-7 | 8-6 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-0 | 3-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.2 | 77.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.9 | 70.4 |
| Massey | 1.5 (#146) | 25.0 (#1) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.84 (#47) | 2.46 (#23) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.09 (#37) | 3.28 (#30) |
| RPI | 0.623 (#65) | 0.526 (#151) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNC | JMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.2% | 57.5% |
| 3PT% | 27.3% | 50.8% |
| REB / G | 34.7 | 42.3 |
| OREB / G | 8.0 | 12.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.04 | 0.88 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.7% | 66.1% |
| TOV% | 12.8% | 23.5% |
| ORB% | 25.3% | 44.2% |
| FT Rate | 41.0% | 28.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.6% | 42.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.0% | 26.0% |
| DRB% | 67.2% | 75.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.0% | 18.7% |
Game Analysis
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