Betting Lines
| Spread | SAM -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Under |
| Money | SAM -450 TXSO +400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SAM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SAM +15 | 141 | Won |
| Massey | SAM -22.9 (-7.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.0 (+2.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SAM -20.1 (-5.1) | 142.7 (-1.7) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SAM -22.7 (-7.7) | 141.7 (-0.7) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SAM -21.8 (-6.8) | 143.6 (-2.6) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 13, 2025 | SAM 93 – 90 TXSO |
| Nov 17, 2024 | SAM 97 – 82 TXSO |
| Dec 22, 2023 | SAM 87 – 65 TXSO |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SAM | TXSO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-11 | 14-21 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 7-11 |
| Home | 13-3 | 7-6 |
| Away | 8-7 | 3-13 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-0 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.1 | 67.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.2 | 73.2 |
| Massey | 8.9 (#38) | -6.2 (#291) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.81 (#116) | -0.34 (#211) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.94 (#128) | -1.00 (#241) |
| RPI | 0.319 (#332) | 0.556 (#122) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SAM | TXSO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.7% | 36.9% |
| 3PT% | 28.0% | 23.5% |
| REB / G | 56.0 | 37.0 |
| OREB / G | 18.0 | 13.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.53 | 0.52 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.5% | 40.1% |
| TOV% | 24.2% | 20.7% |
| ORB% | 45.0% | 30.1% |
| FT Rate | 45.0% | 16.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 39.7% | 52.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.9% | 19.0% |
| DRB% | 74.5% | 69.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.2% | 23.7% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.