Betting Lines
| Spread | SAM -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Over |
| Money | TXSO +110 SAM -130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TXSO win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SAM +3 | 183 | Lost |
| Massey | SAM -0.6 (-2.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 160.7 (+22.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 72% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 74% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SAM -3.0 (+0.0) | 147.4 (+35.6) | 34% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SAM -9.3 (+6.3) | 144.4 (+38.6) | 20% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SAM -3.1 (+0.1) | 148.9 (+34.1) | 43% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SAM -2.0 (-1.0) | 151.1 (+31.9) | 30% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 17, 2024 | SAM 97 – 82 TXSO |
| Dec 22, 2023 | SAM 87 – 65 TXSO |
| Nov 20, 2022 | SAM 78 – 63 TXSO |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TXSO | SAM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-18 | 18-14 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 11-7 |
| Home | 9-5 | 11-3 |
| Away | 3-12 | 6-9 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-2 | 1-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.9 | 77.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 80.0 | 77.0 |
| Massey | -17.1 (#357) | -5.7 (#278) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.75 (#258) | 0.20 (#158) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.16 (#266) | 0.27 (#158) |
| RPI | 0.500 (#157) | 0.479 (#208) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TXSO | SAM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 37.0% | 43.0% |
| 3PT% | 22.2% | 39.3% |
| REB / G | 30.0 | 35.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.5 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.60 | 1.62 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 40.7% | 52.6% |
| TOV% | 27.2% | 15.4% |
| ORB% | 26.6% | 32.0% |
| FT Rate | 23.1% | 29.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 61.2% | 59.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.8% | 15.2% |
| DRB% | 60.0% | 85.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 33.1% | 24.5% |
Game Analysis
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