Betting Lines
| Spread | SAM -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Under |
| Money | TXSO +230 SAM -225 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TXSO win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SAM +22 | 152 | Lost |
| Massey | SAM -6.1 (-15.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.8 (-1.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 11% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 2% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SAM -9.4 (-12.6) | 149.8 (+2.2) | 19% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SAM -5.6 (-16.4) | 152.3 (-0.3) | 27% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SAM -6.8 (-15.2) | 152.0 (-0.0) | 25% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SAM -6.5 (-15.5) | 152.6 (-0.6) | 30% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 13, 2025 | SAM 93 – 90 TXSO |
| Nov 17, 2024 | SAM 97 – 82 TXSO |
| Nov 20, 2022 | SAM 78 – 63 TXSO |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TXSO | SAM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-17 | 29-6 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 15-3 |
| Home | 7-4 | 18-0 |
| Away | 6-11 | 8-5 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.0 | 84.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.1 | 74.9 |
| Massey | -6.8 (#288) | 3.7 (#108) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.76 (#313) | 1.28 (#76) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.33 (#332) | 1.63 (#78) |
| RPI | 0.466 (#231) | 0.541 (#110) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TXSO | SAM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 37.1% | 47.8% |
| 3PT% | 28.8% | 40.6% |
| REB / G | 35.3 | 38.3 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 12.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.87 | 1.24 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 42.5% | 55.9% |
| TOV% | 17.2% | 20.6% |
| ORB% | 26.9% | 35.1% |
| FT Rate | 12.4% | 24.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.7% | 49.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.2% | 21.2% |
| DRB% | 68.0% | 68.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 31.6% | 29.8% |
Game Analysis
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