Betting Lines
| Spread | SAM -12.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 160.5 Over |
| Money | SAM -1100 TXSO +700 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SAM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SAM +15 | 179 | Won |
| Massey | SAM -18.6 (-3.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 161.7 (+17.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SAM -15.4 (-0.4) | 156.4 (+22.6) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SAM -12.8 (+2.2) | 151.4 (+27.6) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SAM -12.7 (+2.3) | 151.9 (+27.1) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SAM -12.3 (+2.7) | 157.0 (+22.0) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 13, 2025 | SAM 93 – 90 TXSO |
| Dec 22, 2023 | SAM 87 – 65 TXSO |
| Nov 20, 2022 | SAM 78 – 63 TXSO |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SAM | TXSO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-11 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 12-6 |
| Home | 13-3 | 9-4 |
| Away | 9-7 | 6-12 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-1 | 0-3 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.5 | 70.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.8 | 72.4 |
| Massey | 5.6 (#77) | -5.8 (#282) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.18 (#30) | -1.32 (#291) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.92 (#37) | -2.05 (#294) |
| RPI | 0.682 (#39) | 0.493 (#192) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SAM | TXSO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.6% | 37.0% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 30.4% |
| REB / G | 41.0 | 32.7 |
| OREB / G | 13.5 | 9.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.85 | 1.18 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.1% | 41.5% |
| TOV% | 19.9% | 15.1% |
| ORB% | 32.9% | 23.0% |
| FT Rate | 35.3% | 20.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.0% | 47.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.6% | 16.8% |
| DRB% | 62.5% | 63.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 32.4% | 53.6% |
Game Analysis
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