Betting Lines
| Spread | RAD -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Over |
| Money | ARMY +150 RAD -150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARMY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | RAD +15 | 165 | Lost |
| Massey | RAD -8.0 (-7.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.9 (+15.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 43% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 21% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | RAD -4.5 (-10.5) | 147.0 (+18.0) | 36% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | RAD -5.1 (-9.9) | 150.2 (+14.8) | 31% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | RAD -4.4 (-10.6) | 148.9 (+16.1) | 31% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ARMY | RAD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-16 | 21-15 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 12-6 |
| Home | 10-5 | 10-3 |
| Away | 7-8 | 7-10 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-2 | 0-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.4 | 68.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.0 | 66.2 |
| Massey | -4.1 (#256) | 3.9 (#108) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.93 (#262) | -0.65 (#242) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.12 (#295) | -0.80 (#229) |
| RPI | 0.388 (#290) | 0.526 (#154) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ARMY | RAD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.4% | 43.8% |
| 3PT% | 33.8% | 28.9% |
| REB / G | 29.7 | 31.5 |
| OREB / G | 5.0 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.93 | 1.10 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.5% | 48.8% |
| TOV% | 18.0% | 14.4% |
| ORB% | 16.3% | 23.7% |
| FT Rate | 28.2% | 15.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.9% | 54.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.5% | 19.5% |
| DRB% | 76.3% | 75.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.8% | 38.3% |
Game Analysis
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