Betting Lines
| Spread | APP -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Over |
| Money | APP -150 KENN +150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | APP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | KENN +4 | 138 | Lost |
| Massey | APP -1.3 (-5.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.5 (-6.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 25% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 11% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | APP -2.5 (-6.5) | 141.6 (-3.6) | 62% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | APP -1.1 (-5.1) | 138.4 (-0.4) | 62% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | APP -2.6 (-6.6) | 142.3 (-4.3) | 51% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | APP -3.6 (-7.6) | 142.6 (-4.6) | 66% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | APP | KENN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 26-9 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 15-3 |
| Home | 10-7 | 15-1 |
| Away | 6-7 | 10-6 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-1 | 1-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.6 | 73.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.1 | 70.9 |
| Massey | -2.6 (#231) | 3.9 (#107) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.28 (#292) | 1.55 (#61) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.97 (#287) | 2.34 (#65) |
| RPI | 0.281 (#343) | 0.612 (#74) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | APP | KENN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.2% | 43.7% |
| 3PT% | 31.6% | 40.0% |
| REB / G | 34.3 | 36.5 |
| OREB / G | 8.3 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.67 | 1.29 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.6% | 50.8% |
| TOV% | 10.1% | 14.8% |
| ORB% | 20.2% | 29.3% |
| FT Rate | 17.2% | 17.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.8% | 54.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.6% | 15.9% |
| DRB% | 79.6% | 82.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.6% | 37.7% |
Game Analysis
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