Betting Lines
| Spread | SLU -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Over |
| Money | SLU +100 PROV +110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SLU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SLU +3 | 149 | Won |
| Massey | SLU -1.6 (+1.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 158.6 (-9.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 74% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SLU -0.7 (+2.3) | 155.6 (-6.6) | 51% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SLU -0.9 (+2.1) | 153.0 (-4.0) | 50% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SLU -0.9 (+2.1) | 154.4 (-5.4) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SLU -0.7 (+2.3) | 155.3 (-6.3) | 51% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SLU | PROV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-12 | 21-12 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 13-7 |
| Home | 15-3 | 15-2 |
| Away | 4-7 | 6-6 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 0-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-1 | 3-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.9 | 77.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.7 | 71.0 |
| Massey | 2.2 (#135) | 0.6 (#162) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.38 (#76) | 0.34 (#146) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.68 (#51) | 0.76 (#137) |
| RPI | 0.666 (#33) | 0.465 (#217) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SLU | PROV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.5% | 48.4% |
| 3PT% | 35.5% | 36.1% |
| REB / G | 41.2 | 35.5 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 11.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.46 | 1.16 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.0% | 54.2% |
| TOV% | 15.6% | 16.1% |
| ORB% | 31.9% | 36.8% |
| FT Rate | 26.9% | 33.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.9% | 50.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 12.6% | 19.0% |
| DRB% | 71.4% | 70.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.7% | 16.0% |
Game Analysis
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