Betting Lines
| Spread | SMC -13.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Under |
| Money | SMC -1400 HOF +700 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SMC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SMC +28 | 124 | Won |
| Massey | SMC -9.7 (+18.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.8 (-25.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 38% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 24% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SMC -9.1 (+18.9) | 144.0 (-20.0) | 73% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SMC -10.8 (+17.2) | 129.6 (-5.6) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SMC -9.0 (+19.0) | 137.0 (-13.0) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SMC -8.0 (+20.0) | 142.4 (-18.4) | 79% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SMC | HOF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-8 | 25-10 |
| Conference | 14-2 | 16-2 |
| Home | 16-2 | 11-2 |
| Away | 6-2 | 11-5 |
| Neutral | 5-4 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-0 | 4-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.3 | 74.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 60.0 | 66.9 |
| Massey | 10.2 (#29) | 8.4 (#48) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.91 (#37) | 4.09 (#2) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.93 (#44) | 6.27 (#3) |
| RPI | 0.674 (#28) | 0.811 (#6) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SMC | HOF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.3% | 51.5% |
| 3PT% | 42.7% | 45.1% |
| REB / G | 41.5 | 29.5 |
| OREB / G | 11.8 | 5.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.23 | 1.91 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.8% | 61.4% |
| TOV% | 15.9% | 12.0% |
| ORB% | 37.0% | 19.0% |
| FT Rate | 22.2% | 21.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.3% | 55.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.6% | 14.6% |
| DRB% | 83.2% | 73.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 13.9% | 14.6% |
Game Analysis
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