Betting Lines
| Spread | MTST -9.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Over |
| Money | UND +400 MTST -500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UND win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MTST +10 | 152 | Lost |
| Massey | MTST -4.2 (-5.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 130.3 (+21.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 43% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 5% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MTST -2.1 (-7.9) | 134.0 (+18.0) | 37% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MTST -8.8 (-1.2) | 131.1 (+20.9) | 19% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MTST -4.5 (-5.5) | 130.1 (+21.9) | 29% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MTST -3.2 (-6.8) | 134.0 (+18.0) | 38% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UND | MTST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-20 | 25-10 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 15-3 |
| Home | 8-8 | 12-1 |
| Away | 4-11 | 10-5 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-2 | 1-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.6 | 70.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.1 | 67.2 |
| Massey | -8.0 (#312) | 4.0 (#104) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.44 (#221) | 1.56 (#59) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.61 (#275) | 3.57 (#26) |
| RPI | 0.447 (#233) | 0.542 (#140) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UND | MTST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.2% | 36.6% |
| 3PT% | 32.6% | 24.6% |
| REB / G | 32.8 | 34.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.5 | 10.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.98 | 0.83 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.7% | 41.3% |
| TOV% | 19.5% | 21.4% |
| ORB% | 30.4% | 30.2% |
| FT Rate | 20.9% | 26.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.9% | 51.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.3% | 18.7% |
| DRB% | 64.5% | 71.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.9% | 12.9% |
Game Analysis
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