Betting Lines
| Spread | PEPP -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Under |
| Money | PEPP -138 UCI +140 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PEPP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PEPP +9 | 119 | Won |
| Massey | PEPP -2.7 (+6.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.3 (-19.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 31% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 4% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCI -2.1 (+11.1) | 134.9 (-15.9) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PEPP -3.9 (+5.1) | 139.3 (-20.3) | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PEPP -6.8 (+2.2) | 139.1 (-20.1) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PEPP -4.9 (+4.1) | 140.5 (-21.5) | 70% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 17, 2024 | UCI 80 – 62 PEPP |
| Nov 22, 2023 | UCI 76 – 60 PEPP |
| Nov 21, 2021 | UCI 82 – 48 PEPP |
| Nov 25, 2020 | PEPP 86 – 72 UCI |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PEPP | UCI |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-22 | 23-12 |
| Conference | 2-14 | 15-5 |
| Home | 8-8 | 11-4 |
| Away | 0-12 | 9-7 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-1 | 2-0 |
| Streak | L5 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.9 | 72.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 81.8 | 68.1 |
| Massey | 8.4 (#47) | 13.5 (#14) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.63 (#122) | 3.12 (#10) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.93 (#129) | 6.44 (#2) |
| RPI | 0.516 (#166) | 0.812 (#4) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PEPP | UCI |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 54.8% | 42.1% |
| 3PT% | 44.9% | 41.7% |
| REB / G | 41.3 | 36.5 |
| OREB / G | 8.3 | 9.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.44 | 1.61 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 64.1% | 50.0% |
| TOV% | 17.7% | 12.8% |
| ORB% | 28.1% | 24.7% |
| FT Rate | 14.4% | 17.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 42.2% | 40.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.2% | 20.2% |
| DRB% | 72.8% | 73.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.0% | 30.8% |
Game Analysis
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