Betting Lines
| Spread | UCI -16.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Under |
| Money | UCI -2000 PEPP +1000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCI win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCI +18 | 142 | Won |
| Massey | UCI -26.2 (-8.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.3 (-7.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCI -23.6 (-5.6) | 142.5 (-0.5) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCI -24.9 (-6.9) | 140.1 (+1.9) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCI -19.4 (-1.4) | 142.9 (-0.9) | 90% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCI -20.1 (-2.1) | 145.6 (-3.6) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 22, 2023 | UCI 76 – 60 PEPP |
| Nov 20, 2022 | PEPP 64 – 55 UCI |
| Nov 21, 2021 | UCI 82 – 48 PEPP |
| Nov 25, 2020 | PEPP 86 – 72 UCI |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCI | PEPP |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 32-7 | 13-22 |
| Conference | 17-3 | 4-14 |
| Home | 13-2 | 7-9 |
| Away | 14-3 | 2-11 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-0 | 1-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.8 | 71.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.4 | 77.2 |
| Massey | 15.4 (#14) | -3.5 (#245) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.58 (#13) | -0.28 (#208) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.80 (#20) | -0.69 (#227) |
| RPI | 0.708 (#22) | 0.479 (#200) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCI | PEPP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.0% | 53.1% |
| 3PT% | 34.3% | 44.4% |
| REB / G | 39.5 | 33.5 |
| OREB / G | 5.5 | 5.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.04 | 0.97 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.5% | 61.2% |
| TOV% | 19.3% | 22.7% |
| ORB% | 19.6% | 22.9% |
| FT Rate | 21.8% | 33.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 42.4% | 53.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.3% | 12.9% |
| DRB% | 86.1% | 74.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 9.3% | 18.3% |
Game Analysis
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