Betting Lines
| Spread | UMBC -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Over |
| Money | UMBC -200 CCSU +210 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UMBC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UMBC +2 | 154 | Won |
| Massey | UMBC -3.2 (-1.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.8 (+2.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UMBC -2.7 (-0.7) | 146.6 (+7.4) | 59% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UMBC -5.2 (-3.2) | 145.9 (+8.1) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UMBC -2.6 (-0.6) | 146.7 (+7.3) | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UMBC -2.6 (-0.6) | 148.9 (+5.1) | 54% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UMBC | CCSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-14 | 10-22 |
| Conference | 8-8 | 7-9 |
| Home | 13-4 | 6-7 |
| Away | 5-10 | 4-14 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-2 | 0-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.7 | 66.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.0 | 70.2 |
| Massey | -11.5 (#347) | -6.9 (#299) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.50 (#304) | -2.36 (#335) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.11 (#294) | -3.55 (#334) |
| RPI | 0.382 (#297) | 0.432 (#250) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UMBC | CCSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 37.9% | 40.5% |
| 3PT% | 29.1% | 32.4% |
| REB / G | 28.0 | 30.5 |
| OREB / G | 7.3 | 7.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.21 | 1.14 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.9% | 47.9% |
| TOV% | 13.8% | 16.2% |
| ORB% | 20.6% | 21.7% |
| FT Rate | 24.3% | 14.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 60.4% | 57.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.3% | 16.8% |
| DRB% | 72.1% | 67.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 14.3% | 14.5% |
Game Analysis
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