Betting Lines
| Spread | STMN -5.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Under |
| Money | MRMK +180 STMN -220 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MRMK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | STMN +11 | 133 | Lost |
| Massey | STMN -10.0 (-1.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 129.9 (+3.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 9% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 4% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | STMN -8.5 (-2.5) | 135.2 (-2.2) | 22% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | STMN -6.9 (-4.1) | 136.2 (-3.2) | 27% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | STMN -7.8 (-3.2) | 136.3 (-3.3) | 21% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | STMN -9.1 (-1.9) | 135.4 (-2.4) | 20% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MRMK | STMN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-16 | 19-14 |
| Conference | 12-4 | 9-9 |
| Home | 10-6 | 12-2 |
| Away | 8-8 | 4-10 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | W11 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 61.9 | 72.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 64.0 | 70.9 |
| Massey | -7.2 (#302) | 2.9 (#124) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.80 (#323) | 0.53 (#133) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.94 (#324) | 0.29 (#166) |
| RPI | 0.389 (#286) | 0.597 (#85) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MRMK | STMN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 36.1% | 49.4% |
| 3PT% | 24.6% | 39.4% |
| REB / G | 25.7 | 32.4 |
| OREB / G | 6.3 | 5.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.62 | 1.10 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 41.6% | 57.2% |
| TOV% | 22.4% | 17.3% |
| ORB% | 17.6% | 19.6% |
| FT Rate | 31.0% | 23.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.7% | 44.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 25.7% | 14.8% |
| DRB% | 59.2% | 68.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.4% | 22.3% |
Game Analysis
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