Betting Lines
| Spread | BRY -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 170.5 Over |
| Money | FIU +180 BRY -175 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FIU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BRY +6 | 176 | Lost |
| Massey | BRY -10.1 (+4.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 161.9 (+14.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 54% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 43% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BRY -7.8 (+1.8) | 159.1 (+16.9) | 26% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BRY -8.5 (+2.5) | 161.6 (+14.4) | 21% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BRY -4.8 (-1.2) | 157.3 (+18.7) | 31% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BRY -6.5 (+0.5) | 159.6 (+16.4) | 39% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FIU | BRY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-18 | 17-13 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 8-8 |
| Home | 11-7 | 9-4 |
| Away | 3-10 | 7-8 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.5 | 76.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.5 | 75.4 |
| Massey | -9.2 (#327) | 8.8 (#39) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.21 (#200) | 1.35 (#78) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.32 (#198) | 2.16 (#72) |
| RPI | 0.479 (#205) | 0.520 (#161) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FIU | BRY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 51.6% | 44.2% |
| 3PT% | 23.5% | 34.2% |
| REB / G | 32.5 | 44.0 |
| OREB / G | 8.5 | 14.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.72 | 0.60 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.8% | 49.2% |
| TOV% | 23.1% | 21.7% |
| ORB% | 25.8% | 33.7% |
| FT Rate | 12.1% | 27.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.4% | 52.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.2% | 22.6% |
| DRB% | 63.2% | 78.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 12.9% | 29.6% |
Game Analysis
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