Betting Lines
| Spread | MRSH -11.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 167.5 Under |
| Money | MRSH -700 COPP +550 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MRSH win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MRSH +19 | 153 | Won |
| Massey | MRSH -18.9 (+0.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 169.0 (-16.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 77% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MRSH -18.0 (+1.0) | 160.5 (-7.5) | 88% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MRSH -15.1 (+3.9) | 162.1 (-9.1) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MRSH -15.9 (+3.1) | 160.2 (-7.2) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MRSH -17.8 (+1.2) | 161.7 (-8.7) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MRSH | COPP |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-8 | 9-23 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 4-10 |
| Home | 15-2 | 4-6 |
| Away | 9-5 | 5-16 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.2 | 72.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.2 | 83.2 |
| Massey | 10.1 (#31) | -0.9 (#194) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.08 (#171) | 0.60 (#124) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.36 (#161) | 0.37 (#160) |
| RPI | 0.387 (#291) | 0.537 (#144) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MRSH | COPP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.3% | 43.7% |
| 3PT% | 38.6% | 36.2% |
| REB / G | 42.7 | 34.4 |
| OREB / G | 15.0 | 8.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.92 | 0.87 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.0% | 51.8% |
| TOV% | 16.3% | 19.2% |
| ORB% | 37.2% | 22.7% |
| FT Rate | 6.3% | 24.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.6% | 52.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.0% | 20.9% |
| DRB% | 69.2% | 65.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.8% | 22.5% |
Game Analysis
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