Betting Lines
| Spread | ILL -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 131.5 Under |
| Money | UVA +110 ILL -138 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UVA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UVA +9 | 131 | Won |
| Massey | ILL -3.4 (+12.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.3 (-17.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 35% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 23% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ILL -0.0 (+9.0) | 143.9 (-12.9) | 63% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ILL -1.9 (+10.9) | 140.2 (-9.2) | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ILL -1.3 (+10.3) | 147.0 (-16.0) | 43% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ILL -0.7 (+9.7) | 147.4 (-16.4) | 49% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UVA | ILL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-8 | 20-13 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 11-9 |
| Home | 15-1 | 15-2 |
| Away | 6-5 | 3-7 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 2-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-0 | 4-0 |
| Streak | L2 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.8 | 74.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 60.5 | 67.2 |
| Massey | 12.4 (#20) | 15.7 (#7) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.90 (#40) | 2.50 (#20) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.95 (#41) | 4.19 (#18) |
| RPI | 0.564 (#114) | 0.568 (#109) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UVA | ILL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 51.4% | 51.5% |
| 3PT% | 51.6% | 38.7% |
| REB / G | 33.0 | 42.2 |
| OREB / G | 9.7 | 12.5 |
| AST / TO | 2.11 | 1.09 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 62.7% | 60.4% |
| TOV% | 14.9% | 21.5% |
| ORB% | 36.2% | 37.3% |
| FT Rate | 44.5% | 26.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.7% | 40.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.3% | 26.1% |
| DRB% | 72.9% | 72.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.4% | 16.7% |
Game Analysis
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