Betting Lines
| Spread | APP -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Over |
| Money | APP -300 SELA +300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | APP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | APP +9 | 157 | Won |
| Massey | APP -1.9 (+7.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.6 (+14.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 26% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 16% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | APP -2.3 (+6.7) | 141.1 (+15.9) | 60% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | APP -2.7 (+6.3) | 140.8 (+16.2) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | APP -1.7 (+7.3) | 140.6 (+16.4) | 50% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | APP -1.7 (+7.3) | 139.9 (+17.1) | 60% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | APP | SELA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 18-14 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 12-6 |
| Home | 10-7 | 10-4 |
| Away | 6-7 | 7-8 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-2 | 2-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.6 | 75.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.1 | 76.8 |
| Massey | -2.6 (#231) | 3.4 (#115) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.28 (#292) | 1.48 (#69) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.97 (#287) | 1.87 (#87) |
| RPI | 0.281 (#343) | 0.563 (#118) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | APP | SELA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.2% | 43.0% |
| 3PT% | 31.6% | 37.9% |
| REB / G | 34.3 | 30.0 |
| OREB / G | 8.3 | 6.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.67 | 0.75 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.6% | 50.2% |
| TOV% | 10.1% | 17.0% |
| ORB% | 20.2% | 19.3% |
| FT Rate | 17.2% | 22.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.8% | 51.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.6% | 20.3% |
| DRB% | 79.6% | 66.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.6% | 28.7% |
Game Analysis
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