Betting Lines
| Spread | BTLR -17.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Under |
| Money | BTLR -1600 CIT +1100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BTLR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BTLR +47 | 131 | Won |
| Massey | BTLR -22.1 (+24.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.9 (-13.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BTLR -23.5 (+23.5) | 144.5 (-13.5) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BTLR -21.9 (+25.1) | 143.7 (-12.7) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BTLR -18.4 (+28.6) | 145.8 (-14.8) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BTLR | CIT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-18 | 10-22 |
| Conference | 6-14 | 5-13 |
| Home | 10-6 | 5-9 |
| Away | 3-9 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-1 | 1-1 |
| Streak | L3 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.2 | 66.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.9 | 74.5 |
| Massey | 10.3 (#28) | -3.9 (#253) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.08 (#173) | -0.31 (#209) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.21 (#171) | -0.63 (#215) |
| RPI | 0.483 (#199) | 0.427 (#257) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BTLR | CIT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 52.4% | 46.8% |
| 3PT% | 27.4% | 41.0% |
| REB / G | 33.0 | 31.5 |
| OREB / G | 7.0 | 5.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.44 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.0% | 54.1% |
| TOV% | 15.4% | 17.2% |
| ORB% | 23.1% | 17.7% |
| FT Rate | 18.9% | 17.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.2% | 46.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 26.5% | 14.4% |
| DRB% | 79.6% | 64.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 8.9% | 16.7% |
Game Analysis
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