Betting Lines
| Spread | NEB -17.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Under |
| Money | NEB -1600 UAPB +1100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NEB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NEB +24 | 140 | Won |
| Massey | NEB -9.6 (+14.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 131.8 (+8.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NEB -9.3 (+14.7) | 137.4 (+2.6) | 81% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NEB -9.9 (+14.1) | 136.1 (+3.9) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NEB -7.1 (+16.9) | 134.7 (+5.3) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NEB -8.0 (+16.0) | 134.9 (+5.1) | 79% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NEB | UAPB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 10-21 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 6-12 |
| Home | 11-4 | 8-5 |
| Away | 4-9 | 2-16 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-1 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L9 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.0 | 65.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.9 | 72.6 |
| Massey | 0.1 (#175) | -1.7 (#207) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.39 (#74) | -1.57 (#306) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.60 (#55) | -1.66 (#276) |
| RPI | 0.661 (#36) | 0.465 (#218) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NEB | UAPB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.3% | 36.8% |
| 3PT% | 27.9% | 29.8% |
| REB / G | 41.7 | 32.6 |
| OREB / G | 14.0 | 8.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.80 | 0.79 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.6% | 42.6% |
| TOV% | 19.8% | 20.7% |
| ORB% | 34.7% | 21.8% |
| FT Rate | 20.7% | 17.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.1% | 49.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.7% | 20.7% |
| DRB% | 70.3% | 71.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 9.1% | 41.6% |
Game Analysis
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