Betting Lines
| Spread | VAL -17.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Under |
| Money | VAL -1600 UIW +1100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VAL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VAL +4 | 132 | Won |
| Massey | VAL -17.6 (-13.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.6 (-9.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VAL -12.2 (-8.2) | 142.7 (-10.7) | 86% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VAL -12.3 (-8.3) | 141.7 (-9.7) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VAL -11.7 (-7.7) | 143.7 (-11.7) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | VAL -13.6 (-9.6) | 144.5 (-12.5) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VAL | UIW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-21 | 12-19 |
| Conference | 5-15 | 6-12 |
| Home | 8-7 | 7-7 |
| Away | 2-12 | 3-12 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 2-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-2 | 0-2 |
| Streak | L5 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.1 | 68.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.0 | 75.1 |
| Massey | -2.9 (#240) | -12.7 (#351) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.24 (#202) | -3.00 (#348) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.46 (#206) | -5.37 (#357) |
| RPI | 0.469 (#212) | 0.448 (#230) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VAL | UIW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.2% | 39.0% |
| 3PT% | 31.8% | 25.5% |
| REB / G | 31.3 | 34.0 |
| OREB / G | 7.3 | 14.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.30 | 0.73 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.0% | 44.3% |
| TOV% | 15.3% | 26.5% |
| ORB% | 22.0% | 36.7% |
| FT Rate | 16.9% | 8.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.8% | 54.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.4% | 21.1% |
| DRB% | 70.6% | 61.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 31.5% | 34.9% |
Game Analysis
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