Betting Lines
| Spread | MEM -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Under |
| Money | MEM -500 VCU +350 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MEM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MEM +15 | 109 | Won |
| Massey | MEM -13.3 (+1.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.8 (-31.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MEM -9.7 (+5.3) | 140.1 (-31.1) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MEM -9.5 (+5.5) | 142.0 (-33.0) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MEM -9.3 (+5.7) | 142.1 (-33.1) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MEM -10.4 (+4.6) | 143.3 (-34.3) | 80% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 7, 2023 | MEM 85 – 80 VCU |
| Nov 28, 2020 | VCU 70 – 59 MEM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MEM | VCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-9 | 27-8 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 15-3 |
| Home | 13-2 | 15-3 |
| Away | 7-5 | 8-3 |
| Neutral | 6-2 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-1 | 3-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.4 | 70.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.8 | 62.9 |
| Massey | 7.7 (#57) | 2.2 (#134) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.10 (#30) | 0.22 (#158) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.66 (#23) | 0.38 (#158) |
| RPI | 0.659 (#39) | 0.482 (#201) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MEM | VCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.7% | 42.1% |
| 3PT% | 28.0% | 31.0% |
| REB / G | 37.0 | 35.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 9.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.39 | 0.65 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.4% | 48.5% |
| TOV% | 16.0% | 24.1% |
| ORB% | 33.8% | 27.0% |
| FT Rate | 29.3% | 37.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.2% | 44.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.5% | 26.9% |
| DRB% | 72.5% | 73.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 31.0% | 21.0% |
Game Analysis
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