Betting Lines
| Spread | MEM -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 144.0 Under |
| Money | MEM -250 VCU +210 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MEM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VCU +11 | 129 | Lost |
| Massey | MEM -3.3 (-14.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.8 (-16.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 55% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 71% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MEM -1.5 (-12.5) | 141.3 (-12.3) | 59% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MEM -1.8 (-12.8) | 142.7 (-13.7) | 57% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MEM -2.2 (-13.2) | 145.8 (-16.8) | 55% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 7, 2023 | MEM 85 – 80 VCU |
| Nov 20, 2022 | MEM 62 – 47 VCU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MEM | VCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-8 | 19-7 |
| Conference | 11-4 | 10-4 |
| Home | 10-1 | 12-2 |
| Away | 4-3 | 5-3 |
| Neutral | 6-4 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Streak | W4 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.4 | 69.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 62.7 | 62.8 |
| Massey | 4.3 (#54) | 1.0 (#92) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.58 (#46) | 0.38 (#89) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.40 (#37) | 0.50 (#89) |
| RPI | 0.604 (#28) | 0.604 (#28) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MEM | VCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.1% | 43.6% |
| 3PT% | 44.4% | 28.9% |
| REB / G | 36.5 | 31.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.5 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.25 | 0.93 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.1% | 49.1% |
| TOV% | 13.8% | 19.6% |
| ORB% | 23.2% | 30.4% |
| FT Rate | 10.5% | 30.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 42.9% | 46.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.6% | 26.3% |
| DRB% | 74.0% | 53.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.1% | 31.1% |
Game Analysis
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