Betting Lines
| Spread | MD -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Over |
| Money | MD -125 MIA +100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MD +18 | 158 | Won |
| Massey | MD -8.9 (+9.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.0 (+24.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 68% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MD -4.8 (+13.2) | 131.6 (+26.4) | 57% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MD -4.5 (+13.5) | 134.6 (+23.4) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MD -5.1 (+12.9) | 136.3 (+21.7) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MD -3.8 (+14.2) | 132.1 (+25.9) | 67% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MD | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-13 | 29-8 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 15-5 |
| Home | 16-1 | 16-1 |
| Away | 2-9 | 7-4 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 6-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-0 | 4-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.7 | 79.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 63.5 | 71.9 |
| Massey | 13.7 (#13) | 4.8 (#88) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.75 (#17) | 1.97 (#35) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.82 (#9) | 3.12 (#34) |
| RPI | 0.766 (#8) | 0.570 (#106) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MD | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.1% | 46.5% |
| 3PT% | 30.8% | 35.1% |
| REB / G | 39.0 | 37.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 12.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.25 | 1.39 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.0% | 53.5% |
| TOV% | 14.8% | 16.5% |
| ORB% | 33.8% | 37.0% |
| FT Rate | 23.0% | 18.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 37.6% | 48.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.6% | 22.6% |
| DRB% | 67.7% | 74.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.3% | 17.4% |
Game Analysis
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