Betting Lines
| Spread | WCU -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
| Money | WCU -275 LIN +275 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WCU +2 | 178 | Won |
| Massey | WCU -7.4 (-5.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.4 (+45.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WCU -4.9 (-2.9) | 140.4 (+37.6) | 71% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WCU -4.2 (-2.2) | 138.3 (+39.7) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WCU -4.2 (-2.2) | 137.3 (+40.7) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | WCU -4.8 (-2.8) | 139.2 (+38.8) | 68% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WCU | LIN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-16 | 11-21 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 6-12 |
| Home | 9-5 | 9-4 |
| Away | 6-9 | 2-14 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-2 | 1-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.5 | 67.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.7 | 76.1 |
| Massey | 1.8 (#142) | -5.6 (#280) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.95 (#102) | -1.05 (#274) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.30 (#109) | -1.44 (#268) |
| RPI | 0.571 (#105) | 0.417 (#267) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WCU | LIN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.0% | 38.0% |
| 3PT% | 39.3% | 28.0% |
| REB / G | 33.5 | 33.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.5 | 9.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.12 | 0.73 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.5% | 43.7% |
| TOV% | 20.4% | 20.0% |
| ORB% | 29.2% | 24.0% |
| FT Rate | 23.4% | 21.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.1% | 50.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.9% | 19.5% |
| DRB% | 70.8% | 71.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.9% | 22.3% |
Game Analysis
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