Betting Lines
| Spread | MUR -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Under |
| Money | TLSA +140 MUR -138 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TLSA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MUR +17 | 137 | Lost |
| Massey | TLSA -6.4 (-23.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.2 (-18.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 58% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 55% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TLSA -3.7 (-20.7) | 154.1 (-17.1) | 67% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TLSA -1.5 (-18.5) | 154.5 (-17.5) | 56% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TLSA -3.3 (-20.3) | 151.5 (-14.5) | 64% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | TLSA -3.5 (-20.5) | 152.0 (-15.0) | 62% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TLSA | MUR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 5-25 | 17-15 |
| Conference | 1-17 | 11-9 |
| Home | 4-10 | 11-2 |
| Away | 0-12 | 3-11 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-2 | 1-2 |
| Streak | L12 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.3 | 69.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.4 | 72.6 |
| Massey | 4.6 (#92) | -1.8 (#214) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.54 (#132) | 0.22 (#157) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.16 (#116) | 0.96 (#126) |
| RPI | 0.546 (#135) | 0.567 (#111) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TLSA | MUR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.0% | 43.8% |
| 3PT% | 42.0% | 32.4% |
| REB / G | 31.5 | 37.7 |
| OREB / G | 9.2 | 8.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.00 | 0.97 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.0% | 50.3% |
| TOV% | 18.5% | 17.4% |
| ORB% | 28.5% | 22.6% |
| FT Rate | 25.4% | 32.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.0% | 45.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.8% | 12.1% |
| DRB% | 65.9% | 62.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.7% | 19.2% |
Game Analysis
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