Betting Lines
| Spread | UTM -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Over |
| Money | UTM -163 PV +170 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UTM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UTM +1 | 159 | Won |
| Massey | UTM -1.4 (-0.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.5 (+23.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 37% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 19% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PV -0.3 (+1.3) | 138.9 (+20.1) | 47% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | PV -0.8 (+1.8) | 138.3 (+20.7) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PV -2.4 (+3.4) | 138.6 (+20.4) | 50% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 22, 2025 | UTM 69 – 68 PV |
| Nov 19, 2023 | PV 78 – 66 UTM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UTM | PV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-14 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 9-9 |
| Home | 14-2 | 9-3 |
| Away | 4-11 | 4-14 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-3 | 1-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.4 | 66.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.1 | 68.3 |
| Massey | -4.3 (#262) | 2.1 (#137) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.73 (#314) | 0.49 (#139) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.90 (#321) | 0.73 (#140) |
| RPI | 0.405 (#274) | 0.604 (#79) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UTM | PV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.1% | 45.9% |
| 3PT% | 27.8% | 47.4% |
| REB / G | 37.7 | 34.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.7 | 8.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.67 | 1.78 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.3% | 53.3% |
| TOV% | 22.8% | 13.9% |
| ORB% | 29.7% | 24.2% |
| FT Rate | 19.4% | 8.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.4% | 39.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.2% | 22.5% |
| DRB% | 60.0% | 81.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.6% | 54.5% |
Game Analysis
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