Betting Lines
| Spread | UTM -10.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 155.5 Under |
| Money | PV +425 UTM -650 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UTM +1 | 137 | Lost |
| Massey | UTM -19.3 (+18.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.2 (-19.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 4% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 1% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UTM -8.6 (+7.6) | 154.1 (-17.1) | 19% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UTM -10.5 (+9.5) | 148.0 (-11.0) | 18% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UTM -12.3 (+11.3) | 148.5 (-11.5) | 15% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UTM -9.2 (+8.2) | 151.5 (-14.5) | 21% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 19, 2023 | PV 78 – 66 UTM |
| Nov 20, 2022 | UTM 80 – 79 PV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PV | UTM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-18 | 22-11 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 13-7 |
| Home | 10-3 | 12-3 |
| Away | 3-13 | 8-6 |
| Neutral | 6-2 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-3 | 2-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.8 | 67.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.9 | 64.7 |
| Massey | -9.2 (#318) | 10.1 (#52) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.91 (#253) | 2.19 (#38) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.24 (#244) | 3.26 (#42) |
| RPI | 0.533 (#145) | 0.661 (#25) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PV | UTM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 36.5% | 47.8% |
| 3PT% | 31.7% | 40.7% |
| REB / G | 30.3 | 36.7 |
| OREB / G | 7.7 | 9.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.79 | 0.83 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 41.8% | 58.3% |
| TOV% | 16.4% | 27.2% |
| ORB% | 18.3% | 30.2% |
| FT Rate | 23.3% | 34.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.9% | 47.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.3% | 18.6% |
| DRB% | 60.2% | 69.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 34.2% | 41.0% |
Game Analysis
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