Betting Lines
| Spread | UTM -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Under |
| Money | PV +250 UTM -250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PV +12 | 144 | Won |
| Massey | UTM -0.9 (+12.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.3 (-5.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 42% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 52% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PV -0.6 (+11.4) | 143.4 (+0.6) | 53% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PV -0.7 (+11.3) | 145.4 (-1.4) | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PV -2.4 (+9.6) | 151.4 (-7.4) | 70% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 22, 2025 | UTM 69 – 68 PV |
| Nov 20, 2022 | UTM 80 – 79 PV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PV | UTM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-21 | 21-11 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 14-4 |
| Home | 5-6 | 12-2 |
| Away | 4-15 | 9-7 |
| Neutral | 1-0 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-2 | 1-1 |
| Streak | L7 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.8 | 79.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.3 | 77.9 |
| Massey | 1.0 (#152) | 1.9 (#136) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.07 (#93) | 1.39 (#70) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.12 (#72) | 2.06 (#75) |
| RPI | 0.518 (#163) | 0.800 (#6) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PV | UTM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 35.5% | 40.1% |
| 3PT% | 29.4% | 27.5% |
| REB / G | 35.0 | 44.5 |
| OREB / G | 13.7 | 13.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.44 | 0.96 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 38.3% | 45.3% |
| TOV% | 19.4% | 16.2% |
| ORB% | 32.5% | 30.6% |
| FT Rate | 35.0% | 13.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.4% | 46.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.5% | 13.8% |
| DRB% | 63.4% | 67.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 37.7% | 18.6% |
Game Analysis
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