Betting Lines
| Spread | MONT -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Over |
| Money | MONT -120 TROY +120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MONT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TROY +11 | 135 | Lost |
| Massey | MONT -2.3 (-13.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.9 (-8.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 94% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MONT -1.7 (-12.7) | 141.9 (-6.9) | 50% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TROY -0.7 (-10.3) | 137.1 (-2.1) | 44% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MONT -2.3 (-13.3) | 142.8 (-7.8) | 60% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MONT -2.3 (-13.3) | 145.0 (-10.0) | 57% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MONT | TROY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-14 | 20-13 |
| Conference | 10-7 | 11-7 |
| Home | 8-4 | 11-3 |
| Away | 6-9 | 7-8 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-2 | 2-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.5 | 70.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.8 | 67.8 |
| Massey | -0.4 (#187) | 5.1 (#84) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.88 (#112) | -0.16 (#193) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.45 (#98) | -0.39 (#203) |
| RPI | 0.546 (#134) | 0.418 (#265) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MONT | TROY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.3% | 44.4% |
| 3PT% | 32.6% | 37.3% |
| REB / G | 31.8 | 36.7 |
| OREB / G | 9.5 | 12.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.96 | 1.29 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.3% | 51.1% |
| TOV% | 20.5% | 16.2% |
| ORB% | 29.0% | 34.5% |
| FT Rate | 31.7% | 19.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 57.4% | 54.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.6% | 21.4% |
| DRB% | 78.8% | 87.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.0% | 39.9% |
Game Analysis
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