Betting Lines
| Spread | GMU -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 131.5 Under |
| Money | GMU -150 BC +150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BC +15 | 127 | Lost |
| Massey | GMU -6.9 (-21.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.0 (-5.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 66% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 76% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GMU -3.6 (-18.6) | 135.7 (-8.7) | 61% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GMU -3.9 (-18.9) | 135.2 (-8.2) | 54% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GMU -4.1 (-19.1) | 136.6 (-9.6) | 67% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | GMU -4.9 (-19.9) | 135.8 (-8.8) | 68% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GMU | BC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-13 | 16-17 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 9-11 |
| Home | 14-2 | 9-7 |
| Away | 4-7 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-1 | 2-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.7 | 66.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.3 | 70.2 |
| Massey | 2.4 (#131) | -4.6 (#268) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.36 (#141) | -0.31 (#213) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.44 (#150) | -0.72 (#222) |
| RPI | 0.597 (#83) | 0.588 (#94) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GMU | BC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.2% | 43.2% |
| 3PT% | 40.6% | 30.5% |
| REB / G | 38.0 | 38.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 11.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.05 | 1.03 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.3% | 47.9% |
| TOV% | 20.6% | 17.5% |
| ORB% | 29.0% | 29.4% |
| FT Rate | 18.6% | 16.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.5% | 51.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.1% | 23.6% |
| DRB% | 69.0% | 72.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.2% | 13.8% |
Game Analysis
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