Betting Lines
| Spread | OU -11.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 128.5 Under |
| Money | OU -700 USA +550 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | OU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | OU +4 | 124 | Won |
| Massey | OU -8.6 (-4.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 123.9 (+0.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | OU -8.0 (-4.0) | 131.7 (-7.7) | 72% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | OU -7.5 (-3.5) | 132.2 (-8.2) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | OU -7.3 (-3.3) | 131.3 (-7.3) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | OU -10.2 (-6.2) | 130.7 (-6.7) | 75% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | OU | USA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 19-16 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 9-9 |
| Home | 9-7 | 10-4 |
| Away | 2-8 | 4-10 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-1 | 0-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.7 | 69.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.5 | 65.8 |
| Massey | 2.5 (#126) | 2.3 (#133) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.11 (#188) | -1.50 (#304) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.52 (#143) | -2.10 (#290) |
| RPI | 0.494 (#183) | 0.594 (#90) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | OU | USA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.4% | 39.4% |
| 3PT% | 32.1% | 20.9% |
| REB / G | 36.7 | 37.0 |
| OREB / G | 5.3 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.76 | 0.83 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.9% | 42.8% |
| TOV% | 23.2% | 16.4% |
| ORB% | 18.4% | 25.3% |
| FT Rate | 32.6% | 12.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 39.3% | 44.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.6% | 18.4% |
| DRB% | 78.3% | 60.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 13.6% | 20.1% |
Game Analysis
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