Betting Lines
| Spread | NEV -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Under |
| Money | UTA +188 NEV -188 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UTA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NEV +19 | 105 | Lost |
| Massey | UTA -9.0 (-28.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.1 (-35.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 33% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 10% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UTA -1.9 (-20.9) | 139.4 (-34.4) | 67% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UTA -0.8 (-19.8) | 139.3 (-34.3) | 59% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UTA -2.9 (-21.9) | 140.3 (-35.3) | 61% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UTA | NEV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-21 | 22-11 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 12-6 |
| Home | 6-8 | 14-1 |
| Away | 4-9 | 6-7 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 0-1 | 2-0 |
| Streak | L3 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 62.9 | 71.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.0 | 68.2 |
| Massey | 1.7 (#147) | 1.1 (#162) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.05 (#272) | 1.33 (#75) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.48 (#272) | 2.84 (#38) |
| RPI | 0.333 (#312) | 0.760 (#17) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UTA | NEV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 35.6% | 43.1% |
| 3PT% | 23.5% | 31.7% |
| REB / G | 37.0 | 36.5 |
| OREB / G | 13.0 | 7.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.37 | 1.61 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 39.0% | 49.1% |
| TOV% | 24.7% | 13.4% |
| ORB% | 33.3% | 23.1% |
| FT Rate | 33.9% | 33.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.3% | 39.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.4% | 18.7% |
| DRB% | 63.2% | 72.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 31.7% | 24.8% |
Game Analysis
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