Betting Lines
| Spread | UVU -10.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Over |
| Money | MORG +400 UVU -450 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MORG win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MORG +1 | 145 | Won |
| Massey | UVU -4.6 (+5.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 129.7 (+15.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 20% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 13% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UVU -3.3 (+4.3) | 137.2 (+7.8) | 37% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UVU -5.0 (+6.0) | 135.7 (+9.3) | 33% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UVU -3.8 (+4.8) | 133.3 (+11.7) | 36% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UVU -3.1 (+4.1) | 133.3 (+11.7) | 36% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MORG | UVU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-16 | 28-9 |
| Conference | 7-7 | 15-3 |
| Home | 10-2 | 14-1 |
| Away | 3-12 | 12-5 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 0-3 | 1-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.9 | 76.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.3 | 69.6 |
| Massey | -3.3 (#243) | 1.3 (#157) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.20 (#283) | 0.17 (#159) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.55 (#277) | 0.39 (#153) |
| RPI | 0.406 (#266) | 0.569 (#107) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MORG | UVU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 36.0% | 37.2% |
| 3PT% | 32.0% | 23.3% |
| REB / G | 35.3 | 40.3 |
| OREB / G | 16.0 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.67 | 1.19 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 40.1% | 41.8% |
| TOV% | 24.4% | 14.7% |
| ORB% | 37.2% | 26.0% |
| FT Rate | 14.2% | 20.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.9% | 45.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 25.0% | 14.6% |
| DRB% | 54.7% | 70.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 32.7% | 17.9% |
Game Analysis
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