Betting Lines
| Spread | MSU -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 130.5 Over |
| Money | MSU -250 VILL +250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MSU +2 | 144 | Won |
| Massey | MSU -19.7 (-17.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 125.0 (+19.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MSU -12.8 (-10.8) | 134.2 (+9.8) | 85% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MSU -10.6 (-8.6) | 132.9 (+11.1) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MSU -13.3 (-11.3) | 133.7 (+10.3) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MSU -13.4 (-11.4) | 133.3 (+10.7) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MSU | VILL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-13 | 17-17 |
| Conference | 11-8 | 10-10 |
| Home | 12-2 | 10-4 |
| Away | 4-7 | 5-9 |
| Neutral | 5-4 | 2-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-1 | 2-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.9 | 69.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.9 | 67.7 |
| Massey | 10.6 (#23) | -0.7 (#190) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.81 (#106) | -0.19 (#195) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.30 (#65) | 0.17 (#164) |
| RPI | 0.525 (#158) | 0.490 (#185) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MSU | VILL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.9% | 47.3% |
| 3PT% | 30.6% | 37.0% |
| REB / G | 41.0 | 30.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.7 | 5.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.09 | 1.07 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.0% | 54.1% |
| TOV% | 19.5% | 15.2% |
| ORB% | 32.5% | 21.0% |
| FT Rate | 25.3% | 30.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 42.4% | 47.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.3% | 16.1% |
| DRB% | 70.2% | 74.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.1% | 21.9% |
Game Analysis
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