Betting Lines
| Spread | UCLA -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
| Money | UCLA -175 ILL +138 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCLA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ILL +9 | 149 | Lost |
| Massey | UCLA -0.7 (-9.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.7 (-7.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 81% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 91% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCLA -1.6 (-10.6) | 151.1 (-2.1) | 56% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCLA -1.0 (-10.0) | 149.7 (-0.7) | 49% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCLA -1.5 (-10.5) | 151.4 (-2.4) | 58% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UCLA -0.8 (-9.8) | 145.8 (+3.2) | 58% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 22, 2026 | UCLA 95 – 94 ILL |
| Feb 12, 2025 | ILL 83 – 78 UCLA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCLA | ILL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 31-6 | 20-13 |
| Conference | 18-2 | 11-9 |
| Home | 17-0 | 15-2 |
| Away | 9-2 | 3-7 |
| Neutral | 5-4 | 2-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-0 | 3-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.1 | 74.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 60.7 | 67.2 |
| Massey | 14.1 (#11) | 13.4 (#14) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.04 (#30) | 0.57 (#122) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.10 (#32) | 0.80 (#129) |
| RPI | 0.764 (#14) | 0.434 (#239) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCLA | ILL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 51.8% | 51.1% |
| 3PT% | 43.3% | 36.0% |
| REB / G | 37.3 | 43.7 |
| OREB / G | 11.3 | 15.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.58 | 1.18 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 58.5% | 59.2% |
| TOV% | 14.7% | 19.4% |
| ORB% | 34.7% | 42.5% |
| FT Rate | 13.8% | 26.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 42.0% | 39.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.9% | 28.4% |
| DRB% | 70.3% | 74.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.3% | 19.7% |
Game Analysis
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