Betting Lines
| Spread | ILL -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Over |
| Money | UCLA +235 ILL -290 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCLA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCLA +1 | 189 | Won |
| Massey | ILL -8.4 (+9.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.7 (+39.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 25% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 15% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ILL -5.6 (+6.6) | 150.1 (+38.9) | 24% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ILL -6.4 (+7.4) | 147.5 (+41.5) | 28% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ILL -6.3 (+7.3) | 148.1 (+40.9) | 28% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ILL -7.7 (+8.7) | 146.3 (+42.7) | 30% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 12, 2025 | ILL 83 – 78 UCLA |
| Nov 19, 2022 | ILL 79 – 70 UCLA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCLA | ILL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-12 | 28-9 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 15-5 |
| Home | 17-1 | 14-3 |
| Away | 4-6 | 8-2 |
| Neutral | 3-5 | 6-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.1 | 83.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.1 | 68.8 |
| Massey | 12.9 (#42) | 24.3 (#4) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.20 (#45) | 3.79 (#9) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.72 (#45) | 5.00 (#7) |
| RPI | 0.572 (#59) | 0.644 (#7) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCLA | ILL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.4% | 46.7% |
| 3PT% | 37.8% | 35.9% |
| REB / G | 32.5 | 41.1 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 13.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.60 | 1.62 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.0% | 55.9% |
| TOV% | 14.2% | 13.6% |
| ORB% | 31.3% | 39.0% |
| FT Rate | 27.1% | 26.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.4% | 46.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.8% | 11.7% |
| DRB% | 68.2% | 73.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.0% | 13.6% |
Game Analysis
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