Betting Lines
| Spread | ILL -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Over |
| Money | ILL -280 UCLA +230 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ILL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ILL +5 | 161 | Won |
| Massey | ILL -6.7 (-1.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.4 (+12.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 57% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ILL -5.9 (-0.9) | 146.0 (+15.0) | 74% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ILL -6.8 (-1.8) | 148.7 (+12.3) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ILL -5.0 (-0.0) | 146.4 (+14.6) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ILL -5.9 (-0.9) | 147.3 (+13.7) | 76% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 22, 2026 | UCLA 95 – 94 ILL |
| Nov 19, 2022 | ILL 79 – 70 UCLA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ILL | UCLA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-13 | 23-11 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 13-7 |
| Home | 13-4 | 15-2 |
| Away | 5-5 | 5-5 |
| Neutral | 4-4 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 83.6 | 74.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.8 | 65.2 |
| Massey | 20.5 (#8) | 16.9 (#22) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.50 (#37) | 2.79 (#24) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.45 (#29) | 3.42 (#30) |
| RPI | 0.590 (#41) | 0.604 (#30) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ILL | UCLA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.0% | 46.8% |
| 3PT% | 31.3% | 34.0% |
| REB / G | 45.0 | 32.5 |
| OREB / G | 13.7 | 10.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.26 | 1.50 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.3% | 52.9% |
| TOV% | 16.0% | 15.7% |
| ORB% | 37.1% | 32.2% |
| FT Rate | 26.9% | 24.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.2% | 49.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.1% | 24.3% |
| DRB% | 74.9% | 70.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.4% | 26.9% |
Game Analysis
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