Betting Lines
| Spread | YSU -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Under |
| Money | UCSD +260 YSU -375 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCSD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | YSU +19 | 127 | Lost |
| Massey | YSU -15.4 (-3.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.9 (-28.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 6% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 1% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | YSU -11.1 (-7.9) | 146.6 (-19.6) | 16% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | YSU -9.7 (-9.3) | 145.5 (-18.5) | 20% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | YSU -10.3 (-8.7) | 150.7 (-23.7) | 16% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | YSU -11.8 (-7.2) | 149.5 (-22.5) | 16% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCSD | YSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-20 | 24-10 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 15-5 |
| Home | 4-10 | 14-3 |
| Away | 6-9 | 9-6 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-3 | 2-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.3 | 80.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.5 | 72.9 |
| Massey | -11.5 (#345) | 3.9 (#105) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.95 (#326) | 0.89 (#98) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.93 (#326) | 1.45 (#98) |
| RPI | 0.412 (#260) | 0.533 (#143) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCSD | YSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.1% | 50.7% |
| 3PT% | 27.6% | 37.9% |
| REB / G | 32.7 | 38.3 |
| OREB / G | 9.7 | 12.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.48 | 1.11 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.0% | 56.2% |
| TOV% | 14.6% | 16.8% |
| ORB% | 28.7% | 35.2% |
| FT Rate | 22.0% | 17.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.8% | 54.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.0% | 17.6% |
| DRB% | 71.1% | 74.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.5% | 21.2% |
Game Analysis
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