Betting Lines
| Spread | UNT -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 114.5 Under |
| Money | UNT -250 FRES +260 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNT +9 | 113 | Won |
| Massey | UNT -8.9 (+0.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 113.2 (-0.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNT -5.0 (+4.0) | 126.5 (-13.5) | 50% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNT -4.3 (+4.7) | 120.4 (-7.4) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNT -3.6 (+5.4) | 128.5 (-15.5) | 60% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNT | FRES |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 31-7 | 11-20 |
| Conference | 16-4 | 6-12 |
| Home | 14-2 | 7-7 |
| Away | 10-3 | 4-9 |
| Neutral | 7-2 | 0-4 |
| Last 5 | 0-1 | 0-2 |
| Streak | W5 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.5 | 63.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 56.3 | 66.0 |
| Massey | -6.0 (#287) | -6.5 (#292) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.23 (#203) | -1.91 (#324) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.22 (#191) | -2.62 (#309) |
| RPI | 0.569 (#107) | 0.516 (#165) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNT | FRES |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 23.5% | 38.6% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 26.9% |
| REB / G | 23.0 | 33.5 |
| OREB / G | 7.0 | 7.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.78 | 0.59 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 30.4% | 42.1% |
| TOV% | 16.3% | 20.5% |
| ORB% | 17.5% | 20.9% |
| FT Rate | 3.9% | 28.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 58.8% | 42.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.7% | 16.7% |
| DRB% | 61.5% | 66.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 5.9% | 17.7% |
Game Analysis
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