Betting Lines
| Spread | FLA -7.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Under |
| Money | FSU +255 FLA -310 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FLA +9 | 143 | Lost |
| Massey | FLA -1.0 (-8.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.0 (-5.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 40% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 19% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FLA -6.0 (-3.0) | 145.9 (-2.9) | 27% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FLA -2.7 (-6.3) | 144.9 (-1.9) | 38% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FLA -3.2 (-5.8) | 145.8 (-2.8) | 38% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FLA -3.3 (-5.7) | 148.8 (-5.8) | 36% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 12, 2025 | FLA 78 – 76 FSU |
| Nov 15, 2024 | FLA 87 – 74 FSU |
| Nov 18, 2023 | FLA 89 – 68 FSU |
| Nov 14, 2021 | FLA 71 – 55 FSU |
| Dec 12, 2020 | FSU 83 – 71 FLA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FSU | FLA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-23 | 16-17 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 9-9 |
| Home | 5-11 | 10-6 |
| Away | 4-7 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 0-5 | 2-4 |
| Last 5 | 0-3 | 2-1 |
| Streak | L3 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.3 | 71.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.2 | 68.6 |
| Massey | -4.5 (#266) | 4.9 (#89) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.07 (#334) | 0.03 (#175) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.74 (#317) | 0.85 (#125) |
| RPI | 0.438 (#237) | 0.504 (#174) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FSU | FLA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.4% | 46.2% |
| 3PT% | 40.4% | 41.5% |
| REB / G | 30.3 | 42.3 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 9.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.98 | 1.18 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.0% | 52.2% |
| TOV% | 20.0% | 14.9% |
| ORB% | 27.0% | 26.4% |
| FT Rate | 25.8% | 27.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.6% | 45.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.7% | 15.4% |
| DRB% | 56.6% | 81.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.5% | 12.6% |
Game Analysis
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