Betting Lines
| Spread | FLA -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 157.5 Over |
| Money | FSU +190 FLA -230 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FLA +13 | 161 | Lost |
| Massey | FLA -2.0 (-11.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.1 (+10.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 86% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 91% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FLA -0.5 (-12.5) | 144.1 (+16.9) | 35% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FLA -1.9 (-11.1) | 147.0 (+14.0) | 29% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FSU -0.3 (-13.3) | 144.1 (+16.9) | 49% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FSU -0.8 (-13.8) | 142.6 (+18.4) | 50% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 12, 2025 | FLA 78 – 76 FSU |
| Nov 18, 2023 | FLA 89 – 68 FSU |
| Nov 19, 2022 | FLA 76 – 67 FSU |
| Nov 14, 2021 | FLA 71 – 55 FSU |
| Dec 12, 2020 | FSU 83 – 71 FLA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FSU | FLA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-15 | 36-4 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 14-4 |
| Home | 11-5 | 15-1 |
| Away | 2-9 | 7-3 |
| Neutral | 4-1 | 14-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-0 | 3-0 |
| Streak | L1 | W12 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.5 | 84.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.5 | 69.6 |
| Massey | -0.9 (#193) | 10.2 (#28) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.64 (#41) | 1.56 (#49) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.33 (#42) | 2.28 (#45) |
| RPI | 0.583 (#100) | 0.556 (#134) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FSU | FLA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.0% | 50.0% |
| 3PT% | 21.0% | 26.0% |
| REB / G | 35.0 | 39.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.7 | 13.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.83 | 1.38 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.9% | 55.2% |
| TOV% | 18.9% | 14.8% |
| ORB% | 28.4% | 39.2% |
| FT Rate | 36.1% | 33.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 41.8% | 47.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 27.3% | 23.8% |
| DRB% | 74.5% | 69.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 38.1% | 16.9% |
Game Analysis
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